Conference
Explorations in Health Economics
- Date:
- 08 Jul 07 - 11 Jul 07
- Venue:
- Copenhagen
- Host:
- iHEA
- Speakers:
- Paul Fenn, University of Nottingham, Adrian Towse, Clive Pritchard, EdGodber, Martina Garau, Office of Health Economics, Alastair Gray, University of Oxford.
- Full Description
- Adrian Towse presented the policyimplications of the study:
Modelling the R&D process for global diseases driven by Public- Private Partnerships (PPPs). The most significant initiative to address the innovation gap for "neglected diseases" affecting poor populations in poor countries has been the establishment of Public-Private Partnerships for product development (PD PPPs); which have been supported in conception and funding by a number of donors. This model is part of a study commissioned by the Rockefeller Foundation to estimate the cost of developing new products for global diseases via PD PPPs and to develop a framework for assessing the value for money offered by these initiatives to funders.
Our objective was to model the R&D process undertaken by PD PPPs in HIVAIDS, TB and malaria to estimate the cost of obtaining successful products.
The R&D portfolios of PD PPPs were modelled using a Markov multi-state model. The Markov model was populated with data on the cost of clinical phases, transition probabilities, duration of phases and technical specifications of future products drawn from the published literature and information provided by the relevant PD PPPs.
For the vaccines portfolios the cost per successful product ranged from $1.4 billion to $2.2 billion (in 2006 US$) depending on the disease area whilst for drugs it ranged from $16 million to $1.2 billion depending on the disease area and on the stage of development at which the R&D process starts. The higher cost of vaccines is, among other factors, due to the significant degree of uncertainty about the underlying science associated with these health technologies as compared with drugs.
This study provides preliminary indications of the cost of developing new products for the prevention and treatment of global diseases when R&D portfolios are driven by PD PPPs. It enables comparisons to be made with the costs of developing new products for richer markets to assess the efficiency of different incentive mechanisms. It enables an analysis of the cost per DALY averted and therefore of the value for money of investing in R&D for neglected diseases to be assessed.
At the same event, Adrian organised and chaired a session on “Competition in Pharmaceutical R & D” where the following studies were presented:
• patent value and R&D competition in pharmaceuticals (Massimo Ricaboni)
• competition and regulation in pharmaceutical markets (Patricia Danzon)
• generic entry in a regulated pharmaceutical market (Joan-Ramon Borrel)
Adrian also acted as discussant for the session titled: “A sure thing? The importance of decision uncertainty”. Papers were given on:
• how to present key uncertainties on the cost-effectiveness of technologies to decision makers (Liz Fenwick)
• how to incorporate the costs of reversal into decisions to adopt/not adopt new technologies (Simon Eckerman)
• the potential opportunity loss associated with adopting a technology if adoption reduces the ability to collect information post-launch. (Sue Griffin)